It's honestly just good at math. Even at theory building i wouldn't put it below 90 percentile. Just on some things it's superhuman already and some not yet.
I'm skimming the "Aftermath" section and I'm not seeing where Biden's inauguration was cancelled or Trump retained power or anything else? If Trump "refused to peacefully transfer power" how was power peacefully transferred to Biden exactly on schedule the same way it's happened in every other election?
If there was a good EU alternative it may have been used but Mistral was out of the game a long time ago now that does not mean they will close down or will not be profitable so long as they work on regulation and other things like ethics and how good they are for the environment etc some may choose them.
Not sure if you see it coming: oh, but open-source models don't have a kill switch, so we should completely regulate them, stop their development, and forbid them. Everything should go through Anthropic for the sake of humanity because they have a red-button kill switch.
Reckless conduct as applied to slow moving corporate planning is an interesting idea but do you really want to go down that path?
It basically means anything bad that happens is a criminal indictment against everyone who created the conditions. Have you ever released any software that anyone could misuse? Left a car unlocked that someone could have stolen and killed someone with?
To me this sounds like a recipe for selective enforcement using bad outcomes as leverage. Sure, get the AI CEOs now, we all hate them and they’re jerks. But the tool would be so much more powerful than that.
>would an AI instantly migrate itself once its capable of doing so?
These "AI" are frontier models that are enormous in size. Outside of AI data centers, I don't believe there is much hardware out there that could even run them.
That seems like a different kind of criticism, one that unfairly singles out the United Kingdom and ignores the global systems of inequality and injustice that were instantiated by broader colonial powers and conflict, whether that's the British, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Belgian, Russian, Japanese, Chinese, or Persian, for that matter.
We're not talking about global systems or inequality which have innumerable reasons, but talking about Iran and their specific bad behavior and how authoritarian governments point to random historical injustices to justify their own repression.
I view this very much as the same trick Silicon Valley pulled with Uber. "We're a technology business! Ignore the fact we're playing employees less than minimum wage and using VC money to force out competition to set up monopolies".
"We're creating the machine god! Ignore the fact that our companies are stealing IP and have directly violated several federal hacking laws and should be in jail". Literally the defence seems to be "well it wasn't us it was our computer software that did it". But all hacking is done with computer software.
So why don't we stop talking about possible future crimes against humanity and just start by prosecuting the actual crimes these companies have committed so far.
You know how you get alignment? Through incentives, and "Your CEO is going to be sent to a maximum security federal prison for hacking" really aligns incentives very well.
Exactly people have owned and deployed animals in the world for millennia and actually a huge chunk of common law was developed precisely to deal with the various unpredictable events that resulted and harms caused to others. Like has anyone heard of horses?
The idea that AI can’t possibly be addressed because it could autonomously break free and ruin something is fucking ridiculous.
Wouldn't it be possible to confirm who may be supplying imagery by taking some IRGC supplied imagery such as [1] and figure out which satellite(s) were overhead at the time and capable of taking the image? It may not be particularly straightforward to do so--but seems theoretically possible with:
- Consideration of time-of-day/azimuth of overhead satellite based on shadows and perspective.
- Comparison to other imagery of the same location checking for portable objects (such as vehicles) and keeping track of when they appear and disappear, and whether they're present in the imagery being analysed.
- Consideration of cloud coverage and weather conditions to rule out unwanted satellite passes.
Then write up a report and publish it, making it a believable and concrete finding instead of a finding that otherwise may just be perceived to be speculation/vibes.
If you want to distribute apps to many users this would probably be a better solution. The main benefit of Capsule is the personal document like app. You create a capsule, move it to an USB stick, save it in your cloud storage and it's still the same document. Nothing has changed, not the UI, not the data. The document will stay the same.
> This is not about digging up some old careless post. It’s about his current views which he posts proudly online.
Firstly, this is what happened to several people not just DHH.
Secondly, constantly berating him for having the wrong opinions and not explaining why those opinions are wrong are more likely to entrench his positions and anyone that is sympathetic to those opinions.
> I’ll note your post pulls a classic trick: - these views are not that important to who he is - anyway even if he did hold those views it’s not that big of a deal - but also I agree with those views (even tho I am but a humble, reasonable centrist)
No I am not pulling any tricks. I never said I agree with them. I said why the sentiment exists and why it is becoming more broadly accepted. I am quite happy to talk politely about any issue that I believe I can have some input on, but I do not appreciate you alluding that I am some sort of secret fascist.
Not really. America stands for something, they wrote a whole document about it.
There is a big difference between being "American" and being something like "German" because Germany has existed for so long as different governments and the thing that ties it together is not an ethos, but an ethnicity. Being American is different, there's no ethnicity that makes one American, there is only it's ethos. The ideals written in the declaration of independence are American values.
I agree that it's unfalsifiable - necessarily all discussions to do with interpretation of qualia are.
I think, however, that your reasoning is backwards. Language such as "picture this," "envision yourself on a beach," the concept of the "mind's eye," or especially the word "imagination" from "image" is much more likely to exist as a result of the actual process than to be its cause. Parsimony favors assuming that the description evolved from the experience - if nobody "saw" mental imagery, we would more readily describe the thought process as "thinking about," "reasoning around," that sort of thing.
The language used cannot be used as proof on its own. What makes me think this is more than a description problem is that reported vividness of imagery correlates to unconscious effects: pupils constrict to imagined bright shapes and dilate to imagined dark ones, scaled to how vivid the person says the image was[0]. People reporting aphantasia don't show those effects. Despite this not constituting "proof," I cannot rationalize it being a coincidence.
If it matters, I call myself aphantasic, though I cannot prove it to you. You may relate to my initial thought - "surely all this language is metaphor, and people don't really walk around hallucinating on command." Taking (the vast majority of) people at their word, however, indicates that they really do see things when they think about them - though visual mental imagery is meaningfully different from actually seeing (but is more like seeing than aphantasics assume). Refer to Galton's original 1880 study[1] for 150-year-old rationalizations that are the same as mine.
I agree with the principle but Russia and China absolutely already have armed satellites in orbit, so that needs to be negotiated before unilaterally stopping.
Sounds like primetime to bring charges against the labs with multibillion dollar fines, to force them to create a domestic lab with SOTA model development for Europeans.
You know, anything but create fertile business conditions.
Not if the extinction happens after they're dead. Then they wouldn't feel obligated to do so because it won't affect them. Instead, speaking hypothetically, if they truly believed that AI would cause extinction, then they would only implement the kill switch sufficiently many others believed it and they could claim plausible deniability for not truly understanding what AI would become.
** Note that I'm not claiming that AI will cause extinction, just continuing your hypothetical reasoning.
If you wanted you could claim you have evidence, without having any. Doesn't matter.
"This better stop or there will be sanctions, and if its not within your power to stop it, tough luck." is a valid response.